Where the Harvard herd is landing as a contrary indicator: For 25 years Ray Soifer, a former Brown Brothers executive who retired in 2000 has been scrutinizing what kind of jobs Harvard MBAs have been taking. His conclusion: If they’re hoovering up Wall Street related jobs, the market is sending a long-term ’sell’ signal. If they’re shunning them, the market’s a long-term ‘buy’:
Mr. Soifer tracks how many Harvard Business School graduates choose market-sensitive jobs each year. If 10% or less of that year’s class take jobs in investment banking, investment management, sales & trading, venture capital, private equity, or leveraged buy-outs, it’s a long-term ‘buy’ signal.
If 30% or more take such jobs, it’s a long-term ‘sell.’
This year, around 37% of HBS grads went to Wall street. That’s up from 30% last year and 26% in the prior year. Soifer’s theory suggests that Wall Street is getting too popular with grads, and that the economy could be in for some rough sledding over the longer term. We note though that if you went short last year on the basis of the theory, and stayed short, you could be feeling some at-least shorter-term pain given the recent rally to new highs. But over the longer term, with the frothiness in private equity, hedge funds, etc., the theory could still work.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Harvard