Archive for the ‘Subprime mortgages’ Category

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  • Buffett’s back, Billionaire looks to lock up GMAC’s ResCap Read the rest of this entry »
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Here's an interesting interview with Paolo Pellegrini,  who recently resigned from Paulson & Co to launch his own hedge fund, PSQR, LLC which will, at least for now, manage his own funds.

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John Paulson, Paulson & Co, Hedge funds, billionaire

The new issue of Bloomberg Markets Magazine focuses on this year's big hedge fund winners, and the story is now online.  What the online version doesn't show, but the magazine version does, is a grinning John Paulson on the cover and another smiling picture with the story.  And he should be pretty happy, with his funds having banked another $1 billion in profit in a year when so many other funds fell flat on their asses.

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Ben Bernanke, The Fed, Credit crunch, Market Meltdown, TARPIn addition to our WSJ anatomy lesson on the Morgan Stanley panic shortly after the Lehman Brothers implosion, we're treated to another one:  The New Yorker gives us "The Anatomy of a Meltdown".  It's a loooooooooong article.  We learn a lot more about Ben Bernanke in the piece in which he also admits mistakes during the crisis:

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Here's the statement that John Devaney published via PRNewswire.  No , he wasn't booed off the stage, he says.  The account was "totally fabricated".

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John Devaney Ouch: John Devaney, the former billionaire baller and skipper of the imploded and liquidated Horizon Funds  (and yacht "Positive Carry") didn't get such a great reception last Monday when he spoke at an annual conference for asset backed securities held in Miami.  According to the NY Post, he was booed on stage during a "rant on why the markets were wrong and he was right".  Later that evening he held an invitation only party on his mom's yacht (since his "Positive Carry" had been sold)…

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All eyes on Dick Fuld today: The embattled Lehman Brothers CEO has kept an incredibly low profile since the firm crashed and burned, went into bankruptcy and was splintered into sold off pieces.  But today he’s being flushed out into the pubic to give testimony at a long awaited hearing before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.  According to Bloomberg:

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Wachovia may be looking to get hitched

Posted by WSF On September - 26 - 2008

WachoviaChartBrideGroom001

Wachovia says they don’t have "liquidity issues" (at least as of today) but they’re nonetheless reportedly testing the merger waters. The toxic debt laden bank is reportedly in preliminary merger discussions with Banco Santander, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.   The stock got nailed today, closing at $10, down  $3.70.
achovia reportedly in talks with three suitors – MarketWatch

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JPMorganSharkWaMu-001

Seized by regulators in the largest bank failure in U.S. history, Jamie Dimon and Co. wasted no time in swallowing WaMu’s assets, deposits "and certain liabilities".  They’ve paid $1.9 billion , but aren’t buying the outstanding unsecured debt, subordinated debt or its stock.  The deal is already done.

JPM also announced that it’s raising $8 billion in equity as an offensive move.

The press releases as well as the link to the JPM’s WaMu presentation slides are below.

JPMorgan Buys WaMu’s Deposits as Thrift Is Seized – Bloomberg

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Washington Mutual is selling assets and some branches to JP Morgan in a deal put together by Uncle Sam.  They’ll discuss it in a 9:15pm conference call (see presse release below):

The
sale will give JPMorgan branches in California and other markets where it does
not have a footprint. But JPMorgan Chase will also inherit a big loan portfolio
of troubled mortgages and commercial real estate. The government needed to find
a buyer for WaMu because a takeover by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
would have dealt a crushing blow to the government’s deposit insurance fund.
 

Regulators Said to Broker Rescue of WaMu – NY Times

Press Release:

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Wilbur Ross is no fan of mark-to-market

Posted by WSF On September - 23 - 2008

"I
think it was a huge mistake — both the general concept of it and more
specifically the way that it was implemented," Ross said at the Reuters
Restructuring Summit in New York on Monday.

 

He said the main problems with the rules, were that accounting treatments for
the exact same security can be different for different companies, based on
whether they decide to hold them to maturity, or mark-them-to market as part of
a trading portfolio.

 

"I think it was well intentioned and horribly botched," Ross said of
the mark-to-market rules.

Wilbur Ross: Mark-to-market was a mistake – Reuters

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They may have to bite harder on the bullet: Merrill Lynch is trying to sell more of their seemingly endless supply of bad loans — a "significant" amount — this time to Korea Asset Management Corp.,  but the bid – ask seems to be an issue and may chill any deal.  According to Bloomberg:

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Lots of Lehman headlines this morning. There was that FT article that described Lehman’s now aborted secret talks to sell a stake to Korea
Development Bank or CITIC.  According to one of the potential investors,
Lehman CEO Dick Fuld still acted as though he was in the drivers seat, saying “he thinks he is playing with a full
deck". CITIC has since come out and denied knowledge of any talks.  In
addition, Citigroup lowered earnings estimates  on Lehman (and Goldman and
Morgan Stanley) in a report dated 8/20, joining the chorus of already lowered
numbers.   And then there’s a WSJ article that says that last month
the Fed chased down a rumor that Credit Suisse had pulled a credit line from
Lehman….

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Would $100,000,000,000 fix Fannie and Freddie?

Posted by WSF On August - 20 - 2008

That’s the amount that Joshua Rosner, a research analyst from consulting firm Graham-Fisher, thinks might do the trick according to this morning’s NY Post:

Joshua Rosner, a well-respected
analyst at consulting and research firm Graham-Fisher, said that even under the
most conservative circumstances, the embattled government-sponsored enterprises
(GSEs) would need to go out, hat in hand, and raise at least $40 billion in
order to shore up their balance sheets.

But the realistic number could be more like $100 billion.

Rosner’s comments come as there is a growing belief on Wall Street and Capitol
Hill that the GSEs, which hold just under half of the nation’s $12 trillion in
mortgages, will require a government-led bailout.

$100,000,000,000.00 – NY Post

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Leveraged loans could come back to haunt some of the banks that sold them:  Citigroup and Deutsche bank
may have announced billions in loan saies to private equity firms, but as it
turns out, according to securities filings, balance sheet risks still remain
that could cost them if the market really tanks.   According
to the Financial Times:

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With Wall Street write downs costing billions and billions since the beginning of last year, many of the financial firms that NY
City and NY State count on for huge tax revenues probably won’t be paying much
in taxes for years, according to Mayor Michael Bloomberg.  Instead, they’ll
be getting big fat tax refunds, putting huge pressure on the state and city
budgets.   So who’s gonna pay for Wall Street’s excesses?  New
Yorkers, naturally, in the form of higher taxes and degraded services….

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Thanks Merrill!: Partly due to Merrill Lynch’s debt blow out firesale to Lone Star Funds last month, JP Morgan had to take a $1.5 billion writedown on mortgage securities in July.  It’s a relatively small loss to be sure, so no biggie,  at least for JPM.  The more interesting question is what will the similar inevitable write downs look like from its competitors….

In a regulatory filing, JPMorgan said
since the beginning of July, trading conditions in the mortgage market “had
substantially deteriorated . . . causing the company to incur losses” of
$1.5bn, excluding hedges.

JPMorgan declined to comment further. However, people close to the company said
it had been forced to write down the value of its $33bn in mortgage-backed
securities as prices continued to drop in July.

They said the writedowns were partly driven by Merrill Lynch’s decision to
sell $6.7bn in toxic securities to Lone Star funds, the distressed debt
investor, for just 22 cents on the dollar.

JPMorgan struck by $1.5bn writedown – Financial Times

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Jimmy Cayne didn’t waste any time escaping to the golf course after the shareholder meeting where JP Morgan swallowed Bear Stearns. Here’s an excerpt from the Fortune Magazine interview with Cayne:

After the final shareholders’ meeting
in May, Cayne spent his last hours at Bear Stearns chatting with a few loyalists
who stopped by his lair to say their goodbyes. He took a call from Jamie Dimon,
the CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, who was checking in from Positano, Italy, to make
sure the shareholder vote went off without a hitch. Finally it was time for him
to leave his sixth-floor refuge at 383 Madison. But already things had changed.
For years on Thursday afternoons, Cayne headed off early to the East 34th Street
Heliport for the short $1,700 chopper ride down to the Hollywood Golf Club. But
since his retirement in January, some luxuries had to be eschewed. So he put on
his suit jacket, grabbed a freshly baked chocolate-chip cookie from his
secretary’s desk, and headed down to Vanderbilt Avenue. A car and driver were
waiting to take him down the Garden State Parkway to Deal and his next round of
golf. There would be no helicopter ride this day.

The rise and fall of Jimmy Cayne
- Fortune

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Fortune Magazine’s Jimmy Cayne article

Posted by WSF On August - 4 - 2008

The new Fortune Magazine has the first interview that former Bear Stearns golf and bridge addicted CEO Jimmy Cayne has given since his former firm imploded and was swallowed by JP Morgan (no link was yet available when we checked). Cayne is said to have been "in the dark about bear’s weakened state" in the final days of the firm according to a Reuters account of the Fortune article — naturally he was doing one of his favorite things, playing at a Detroit bridge tournament. And when he was hospitalized last September, it was way worse than what ultimately leaked out.  And of the the $2 offer for Bear’s stock: "I felt nothing"…."You got a bad grade on
your test. That’s it. No appeal. I felt sad for me and sad for my Bear
Stearns family."

In Cayne’s first interview since Bear
was forced into a fire-sale takeover by JPMorgan Chase , he told Fortune he woke
up on September 11 drowsy, weak and with dangerously low blood pressure. He
rushed to a Manhattan hospital with sepsis so severe that doctors gave him a
50-50 chance of survival.

Though he remained in the hospital
for 10 days and lost 30 pounds, Cayne and Bear never notified the public. He
took a car service instead of calling for an ambulance to ensure his hospital
visit didn’t become public, Fortune said.

 

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First Merrill Lynch bit the bullet and purged billions of dollars of debt from its balance sheet at a huge discount.  According to the NY Post, Lehman may be the next to do the same.  The firm is reportedly shopping "some $30 billion in commercial mortgage assets and other hard-to-value securities".  Like Merrill, they may provide some financing for a deal.  There’s apparently also speculation that Lazard was tapped to advise the firm.
Lehman Shopping Mortgage Securities – NY Post

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Another Carlyle Group fund has run aground and is liquidating.  It’s multi-strategy Blue Wave fund, which has seen assets drop from $900 million when the fund opened its doors in 1997 to around $600 is going the orderly liquidation route:

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With Merrill Lynch’s huge announcement yesterday of their bullet biting asset and equity sales, Reuters takes a walk down memory lane and presents a list of John Thain quotes about the company’s capital raising needs starting on December 24, 2007, with the most recent feel good statement, on the company’s July 17 earnings conference call:

"Right now we believe that we
are in a very comfortable spot in terms of our capital."

Here are our favorites, made on March 8 to French publication, Le Figaro:

"…Today I can say that we will
not need additional funds. These problems are behind us. We will not return to
the market."

and to Spain’s El Pais newspaper on March 16:

"We have more capital than we
need, so we can say to the market that we don’t need more injections. We can
confirm that we have tackled the problem."

FACTBOX: Quotes from Merrill’s Thain on capital needs – Reuters

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MerrillLynch-JohnThainForkedTongue-20080728

Merrill Lynch traded like crap all day and now we know why.  John "we-don’t-need-to-raise-no-stinking-capital" Thain’s latest plan includes a humongous and dilutive equity capital raise, as well as a sell off of much of the kaka paper on the firm’s balance sheet.

They’re selling $30.6 billion gross notional amount of U.S super senior ABS CDO’s, currently carried on their books at $11.1 billion, for the monumental sum of $6.7 billion to Lone Star Funds.  And they’re financing 75% of the purchase price.  So Merrill is selling the paper at 21.6% of face, and 60.4% of the latest book value. And that’s producing a fresh Q3 writedown of $4.4 billion.  Nice!

The company is also issuing approximately $8.5 billion of common stock in a public offering launched today.  Temasek Holdings, Merrill’s largest shareholder,  will buy $3.4 billion of the stock. In addition, Merrill Lynch’s executive management team "intends to purchase approximately 750 thousand shares of common stock in the offering".  And let’s not forget that Temasek’s investment agreement contained a reset provision: Merrill will pay them $2.5 billion, which Temasek will invest back in the publc offering without a future reset provision.


In addition, $5.4 billion of the $6.6 billion of outstanding mandatory
convertible preferred holders have agreed to exchange their outstanding
preferred stock for approximately 195 million shares of common stock, plus
accrued dividends payable in cash or stock at the option of the holder. A holder
of $1.2 billion of outstanding mandatory convertible preferred has agreed to
exchange their securities for new mandatory convertible preferred securities
with a reference price of $33.00. The reset feature for all securities exchanged
has been eliminated.

Here’s the full press release:

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